Clinical and Imaging Characteristics to Discriminate Between Complicated and Uncomplicated Acute Cholecystitis: A Regression Model and Decision Tree Analysis

TL;DR

This study developed a scoring system and decision tree to help doctors quickly identify severe cases of acute cholecystitis using CT scans and blood tests.

Contribution

A novel scoring system and decision tree model integrating CT findings and biomarkers for early detection of complicated cholecystitis.

Findings

Key predictors of complicated cholecystitis include gangrenous changes, high gallbladder wall attenuation, elevated CRP, and high WBC.

The scoring system achieved an AUC of 0.775 with a cutoff score of ≥2 points for identifying severe cases.

Decision tree analysis confirmed the four predictors as critical for disease severity stratification.

Abstract

Background: Acute complicated cholecystitis (ACC) is associated with prolonged hospitalization, increased morbidity, and higher mortality. However, objective imaging-based criteria to guide early clinical decision-making remain limited. This study aimed to develop a predictive scoring system integrating clinical characteristics, laboratory biomarkers, and computed tomography (CT) findings to facilitate the early identification of ACC in the emergency department (ED). Methods: We conducted a retrospective study at an urban tertiary care center in Taiwan, screening 729 patients who presented to the ED with suspected cholecystitis between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2020. Eligible patients included adults (≥18 years) with a confirmed diagnosis of acute cholecystitis based on the Tokyo Guidelines 2018 (TG18) and who were subsequently admitted for further management. Exclusion criteria included (a) the absence of contrast-enhanced CT imaging, (b) no hospital admission, (c) alternative final diagnosis, and (d) incomplete clinical data. A total of 390 patients met the inclusion criteria. Demographic data, laboratory results, and CT imaging features were analyzed. Logistic regression and decision tree analyses were used to construct predictive models. Results: Among the 390 included patients, 170 had mild, 170 had moderate, and 50 had severe cholecystitis. Key predictors of ACC included gangrenous changes, gallbladder wall attenuation > 80 Hounsfield units, CRP > 3 mg/dL, and WBC > 11,000/μL. A novel scoring system incorporating these variables demonstrated good diagnostic performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.775 and an optimal cutoff score of ≥2 points. Decision tree analysis similarly identified these four predictors as critical determinants in stratifying disease severity. Conclusions: This CT- and biomarker-based scoring system, alongside a decision tree model, provides a practical and robust tool for the early identification of complicated cholecystitis in the ED. Its implementation may enhance diagnostic accuracy and support timely clinical intervention.

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