Short-Term Preliminary Evaluation of Suicide Following the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake in Japan Using Time Series Analysis
Takahiro Arai
TL;DR
This study found a temporary decrease in suicides after the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake, suggesting community support may reduce suicide risk in the short term.
Contribution
The study provides new evidence for the pulling together effect or honeymoon phase following a major earthquake.
Findings
Both Poisson regression and prophet models showed fewer suicides than predicted for 3 months after the earthquake.
The reduced suicide trend was consistent across multiple regions within the disaster-affected areas.
Abstract
Abstract: Background: The impact of earthquakes on mental health is profound. Aim: This study examines the short-term impact of the Noto Peninsula earthquake (magnitude 7.6) in Japan in January 2024 on the number of suicides and investigates the existence of the pulling together effect or honeymoon phase in suicide trends. Method: Suicide data from disaster-affected areas in Ishikawa Prefecture from January 2017 to June 2024 were analyzed using Poisson regression and prophet models. Results: Both models identified fewer suicides than predicted for 3 consecutive months (March–May 2024). This trend was observed even when the affected areas were subdivided into multiple regions. Limitations: Economic factors and data on suicide attempts or mental disorders were not included in the analysis. Conclusion: This study provides evidence supporting the pulling together effect or honeymoon phase,…
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Taxonomy
TopicsSuicide and Self-Harm Studies · Disaster Response and Management