Analysis of wet and dry encounters in the Yangtze River Basin based on the Copula function family and research on the probability of floods and droughts occurrence
Jinhang Li, Mengdie Zhao, Yuping Han
TL;DR
This study analyzes rainfall patterns and the probability of floods and droughts in the Yangtze River Basin using statistical and modeling techniques.
Contribution
A novel Bayesian network model is developed to simulate and manage flood and drought probabilities in the Yangtze River Basin.
Findings
The Yangtze River Basin shows periodic rainfall changes of 14, 33, and 10 years in the upper, middle, and lower reaches, respectively.
The probability of simultaneous floods and droughts in the upper and lower reaches is 53% and 47%, respectively.
When all regions are in wet or dry years, the probability of floods or droughts in the basin is 91%.
Abstract
As the largest river in China, exploring the evolution characteristics of rainfall in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and analyzing the frequency of wet and dry encounters play a significant role in flood and drought prevention in the Yangtze River Basin. This study employs the Mann-Kendall test, 5-year moving curve, Pettitt test method, and Morlet wavelet analysis method to analyze and diagnose the trend, abrupt changes, and periodicity of rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin. By fitting the optimal rainfall marginal distribution and Copula joint distribution model, the probability of wet and dry period encounters and their changing patterns in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are calculated and analyzed. Based on the results of wet and dry encounters, a Bayesian network model for flood and drought management is constructed and…
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Taxonomy
TopicsHydrology and Drought Analysis · Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies · Climate variability and models