Older Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations living with dementia: State and territory scenario‐based projections into the future

TL;DR

This paper projects a significant rise in dementia cases among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations in Australia by mid-century, emphasizing the need for targeted responses.

Contribution

The study provides state and territory-specific dementia projections for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations using a modified projection model.

Findings

The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population is projected to grow, with increasing numbers aged over 45, 65, and 80 years by 2051.

Dementia cases among this population are expected to double in the Northern Territory and increase more than fivefold in several states.

Sensitivity analyses confirm the robustness of these projections across different dementia prevalence scenarios.

Abstract

To produce plausible estimates of the number of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander people living with dementia within Australia disaggregated by state and territory to mid‐century.

The Wilson–Grossman variation of the Hamilton–Perry projection model was used to prepare state and territory projections of the Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander population, 2021–2051. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census (2021) and Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2021 were used to estimate the number of people living with dementia 2021–2051.

From 2021 to 2051, the Australian Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander population is projected to grow across all states and territories. By 2051, there will be an increasing number and proportion of the population aged over 45, 65 and 80 years, with this increase varying by jurisdiction. This pattern of ageing will see an increase in the number of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander people living with dementia, regardless of assumptions about future dementia prevalence. This increase will vary in magnitude by juristiction, doubling in the Northern Territory and increasing more than fivefold in the Australian Capital Terrritory, New South Wales, Tasmania and Queensland. Sensitivity analyses of alternative dementia scenarios produce highly similar results.

Between 2021 and 2051, the estimated number of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander people living with dementia is projected to increase. Combined with regional demographic variations, this trend highlights the urgent need for targeted responses at both local and national levels.