# Construction and validation of an ultrasound-based nomogram model for predicting dysphagia in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

## TL;DR

This study creates a model to predict swallowing difficulties in COPD patients using ultrasound measurements.

## Contribution

A novel ultrasound-based nomogram model for predicting dysphagia in COPD patients is developed and validated.

## Key findings

- Ultrasound measurements like hypoglossal-hyoid shortening rate were identified as independent risk factors for dysphagia.
- The model showed good predictive accuracy with AUCs of 0.834 in training and 0.804 in validation cohorts.
- The nomogram provides a useful tool for assessing dysphagia risk in COPD patients.

## Abstract

Dysphagia is common in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), prompting the need for predictive models for this condition. In this study, we aimed to develop a nomogram model for dysphagia prediction in patients with COPD.

Data from 300 patients with COPD were divided into the training (n = 210) and validation (n = 90) cohorts. Independent risk factors for dysphagia were identified using logistic regression and used to construct a nomogram model. The model’s predictive efficacy, accuracy, and clinical utility were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration, decision curve analysis, and clinical impact curves.

Hypoglossal-hyoid shortening rate, hyoid-larynx shortening approximation distance, chin time of movement of the genioglossus, and distance of movement of the genioglossus were identified as independent risk factors. The nomogram exhibited areas under the curve of 0.834 and 0.804 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, indicating good predictive efficacy and calibration.

The nomogram model effectively predicts dysphagia occurrence in patients with COPD, providing a valuable tool for risk assessment.