# Bovine tuberculosis model validation against a field study of badger vaccination with selective culling

## TL;DR

This study validates a model predicting the effects of badger vaccination and selective culling on bovine tuberculosis, showing it aligns with real-world outcomes.

## Contribution

The study confirms the model's accuracy without assuming social perturbation, supporting its use for disease management strategies.

## Key findings

- The model predicted similar outcomes to the field study in terms of badger numbers and disease prevalence.
- No evidence of social perturbation was found in the field study, aligning with the revised model assumptions.
- The combined approach of vaccination and selective culling may be more effective than vaccination alone.

## Abstract

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a costly disease in Britain and Ireland shared by cattle and badgers (Meles meles), and to reduce the infection in cattle to low levels some form of badger management is considered necessary. We compare the results of a badger field trial where test-positive badgers are culled, and test-negative badgers vaccinated (a TVR approach) with the results of the simulation model originally used to predict the effect of the trial in Northern Ireland. Initial model results depended strongly on whether social perturbation occurred in the badger population following culling, and the field study demonstrated no evidence for such behavior. Here we re-run the model with the initial conditions of the TVR study and with no social perturbation and predict a similar outcome in terms of number of badgers caught, number testing positive, and the substantial decline in prevalence. These results validate our model and demonstrate the utility of such predictive modelling for this disease system. This is particularly important as the UK government moves away from widespread badger culling in England toward more vaccination, as this combined approach of vaccination and selective culling based on test results may give a more robust method of disease management than just vaccination on its own.