# Population risk predictors of major adverse kidney events attributed to focal segmental glomerulosclerosis from the CURE-CKD registry

## TL;DR

This study identifies factors that predict major kidney problems in patients with focal segmental glomerulosclerosis using real-world health data.

## Contribution

The study introduces population-level predictors of kidney events in FSGS patients, including healthcare utilization and insurance type.

## Key findings

- Over 40% of FSGS patients experienced major adverse kidney events within three years.
- Higher urine protein levels and non-commercial insurance were linked to increased risk of kidney events.
- Older age was associated with a lower risk of adverse kidney outcomes.

## Abstract

Predictors of major adverse kidney events (MAKE) in focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) have not been previously explored within large, real-world populations. The study aim was to evaluate population-level predictors of MAKE attributed to FSGS from health system data.

The study population was derived from electronic health records from Providence and University of California Los Angeles Health Systems. Identification of FSGS was based on International Classification of Diseases 9/10 diagnostic codes. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the effects of traditional clinical and unique non-traditional variables including age, gender, race and ethnicity, health system, health insurance, healthcare utilization, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), diabetes, hypertension, and prescription medications as predictors of MAKE defined as: ≥ 40% eGFR decline, kidney failure (eGFR < 15 mL/min/1.73 m2, administrative codes for kidney failure, dialysis, or transplant) and death.

Adults with FSGS (N = 629) were 54% (n = 342) men and 53 ± 17 (mean ± SD) years old. Baseline eGFR was 60 ± 30 mL/min/1.73 m2, while median (interquartile range) urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) and urine protein/creatinine ratio (UPCR) were 1,430 (520–2,630) mg/g and 1.6 (0.5–3.9) g/g, respectively. Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers were prescribed to 76% (n = 475), while corticosteroids and other immunomodulators were prescribed in 47% (n = 297) and 12% (n = 74), respectively. MAKE were observed in 42% (n = 262) of study participants over a median of 2.9 (1.4–4.5) years. Higher hazard for MAKE was associated with baseline above-median UACR or UPCR (HR [95% CI] (3.46 [2.28–5.23]) in patients with available measures, prescription for non-corticosteroid immunomodulator (1.87 [1.32–2.65]), non-commercial health insurance (1.78 [1.36–2.33]), hospitalization (1.64 [1.25–2.15]), lower eGFR per 10 mL/min/1.73 m2 1.25 [1.18–1.32]), number of outpatient visits (1.03 [1.01–1.05]) and lower hazard for MAKE was associated with older age (0.89 [0.82–0.98]).

Substantial loss of kidney function or kidney failure occurred in more than four in ten patients with FSGS by a median of three years. MAKE were predicted by unique population level factors, such as healthcare utilization and insurance type, which may help to identify patients with FSGS, who could most benefit from diagnostic testing and interventions to improve clinical outcomes.

Not applicable.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12882-025-04334-6.