Quantifying the contributions of cardiovascular risk factors to cardiovascular disease trends in 21st century Japan: a microsimulation study

TL;DR

This study used a simulation model to show how changes in risk factors like blood pressure and smoking affected cardiovascular disease trends in Japan from 2001 to 2019.

Contribution

The study quantifies the specific impact of each cardiovascular risk factor on disease trends in Japan using a validated microsimulation model.

Findings

SBP and smoking reductions prevented over 800,000 cardiovascular disease cases in Japan from 2001 to 2019.

Rising BMI and low physical activity and fruit/vegetable intake partially offset the benefits of other risk factor improvements.

LDL-c and HbA1c changes had modest impacts compared to blood pressure and smoking.

Abstract

Recent stagnation or worsening trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, including low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) and obesity, might slow the decline in Japan's CVD burden. We aimed to quantify the impact of national changes in CVD risk factor distributions on Japan's CVD burden from 2001 to 2019.

We conducted a microsimulation study with counterfactual analysis using IMPACTNCD-JPN, a validated model based on real-world data. It simulated a synthetic Japanese population (ages 30–99) from 2001 to 2019 using life-course data on seven CVD risk factors, estimating CVD incidence, mortality, and healthcare economics for synthetic individuals. The base-case reflected observed trends; counterfactual scenarios assumed 2001 levels persisted. Primary outcome was national CVD incidence (stroke and coronary heart disease).

From 2001 to 2019, systolic blood pressure (SBP) and smoking declined markedly (men/women) by 6·8/7·2 mmHg and 18·4/6·8%, respectively, while LDL-c, HbA1c, body mass index (BMI), physical activity (PA), and fruit/vegetable (FV) consumption showed smaller or adverse trends. Under the base-case and counterfactual scenarios, IMPACTNCD-JPN estimated CVD incidence and quantified the differences between the scenarios. The changes in the CVD risk factors prevented or postponed 840,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 540,000–1,300,000) national CVD cases, cumulative from 2001 to 2019. Individual contributions were: SBP 540,000; smoking 280,000; LDL-c 27,000; HbA1c 7900; BMI −15,000; PA −16,000; and FV consumption −11,000.

SBP and smoking reductions drove most CVD burden declines in Japan (2001–2019). Modest benefits came from LDL-c and HbA1c, while rising BMI, and low PA and FV intake partly offset these benefits.

10.13039/501100001691JSPS KAKENHIJP22K17821, JP25K02863; the 10.13039/501100003478Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Comprehensive Research on Life-Style Related 22FA1015, 24FA1015.

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