Hot Flash Prediction for the Delivery of Just‐In‐Time Interventions

TL;DR

This study shows that hot flashes during menopause can be predicted 17 seconds before they are felt, using skin conductance data, which could enable timely interventions to improve quality of life.

Contribution

The study introduces a novel method to predict hot flashes using skin conductance signals before subjective perception.

Findings

A model using skin conductance features predicted 82% of hot flashes on average 17 seconds before onset with less than 2% false positives.

69% of predicted hot flashes were identified before the participant perceived them.

Abstract

During menopause, the majority of women experience hot flashes (HF) that have a significant negative impact on sleep and quality of life. Current HF therapies are either ineffective or associated with unacceptable side effects. Digital health technologies offer a novel opportunity to fill this treatment gap with just‐in‐time thermal interventions through wearable devices. Thermal interventions have shown promise in reducing the negative impact of HFs. We hypothesized that HF event onsets can be accurately and reliably predicted from physiological signals prior to a person's perception of the events. This study investigated the feasibility of using skin conductance (SC) to predict the onset of HF events before they are subjectively perceived. 62 women who were experiencing HFs and self‐reported being in peri‐ or postmenopause were recruited. Data collection consisted of three remotely conducted 48‐h sessions. During each session, SC from the lateral torso was measured continuously and participants logged the precise timing of each perceived HF event onset. We developed new features to identify characteristics of SC signals before HFs were perceived. The best performing model trained with these features identified 82% of HF events on average 17 s before the onset with less than 2% false‐positive rate. Among the identified events, the model predicted 69% of HF events before onset. This study demonstrates the feasibility of predicting HF event onsets before subjective perception. Future studies should investigate both multimodal prediction as well as user acceptance and effectiveness of just‐in‐time thermal interventions.

Impact Statement

This study is the first to demonstrate that hot flashes during menopause can be accurately predicted using skinductance signals, enabling detection an average of 17 s before subjective awareness. This breakthrough opens the door to non‐pharmocological, hormone‐free intervention systems that could help alleviate symptoms and improve the quality of life for millions of individuals affected by menopause.

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