# Effects of vector control interventions on spatio-temporal changes of falciparum malaria risk in children aged 2–10 in sub-Saharan African regions during 2011–2020

## TL;DR

This study examines how vector control efforts, like insecticide-treated nets, have impacted malaria risk in children aged 2–10 in sub-Saharan Africa from 2011 to 2020.

## Contribution

The study introduces a spatiotemporal Bayesian regression model to assess the impact of vector control on malaria prevalence in children.

## Key findings

- Malaria prevalence in children aged 2–10 decreased from 21.32% in 2011 to 16.75% in 2016, with a slight increase in 2017.
- Each additional person using insecticide-treated nets annually correlates with a 34.07% lower malaria risk.
- West-central, Central, and certain Eastern regions had the highest malaria infection rates among children.

## Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has a disproportionately high malaria fatality rate globally, with young children accounting for the majority of fatalities. The objective of this study is to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria infection risk and assess the effect of vector control interventions on malaria infection rates in SSA nations.

We utilized data from the Malaria Atlas Project regarding the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infections and vector control interventions across 634 administrative areas in 45 SSA countries over a decade. This study adopted spatiotemporal regression models using Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods with a Bayesian setup.

Between 2011 and 2020, the average annual prevalence rates of malaria infection among children aged 2 to 10 in SSA diminished from 21.32% in 2011 to 16.75% in 2016, with a slight resurgence observed in 2017. Each unit increase in the number of individuals utilizing insecticide-treated nets (ITN) annually correlates with a 34.07% reduction in the risk of malaria infection. A rise in malaria cases has prompted SSA to undertake serious control measures. The auto-regressive process reveals a highly significant temporal correlation, while the global spatial dependency parameter indicates a modest spatial correlation. The highest risk of malaria infection prevalence among children aged 2 to 10 was indicated in states in the West-central, Central, and certain Eastern regions.

Given that the West-central, Central, and select Eastern states exhibit the highest rates of malaria infection, the global end malaria councils and the malaria control and elimination program should prioritize interventions in these regions, enhancing vector control measures and providing comprehensive training on their effective utilization to mitigate malaria risk in these areas.