# Assessment of Habitat Suitability and Identification of Conservation Priority Areas for Endangered Marco Polo Sheep Throughout Khunjerab National Park (Pakistan) and Tashkurgan Natural Reserve (China)

## TL;DR

This study identifies key habitats and conservation areas for endangered Marco Polo sheep in Pakistan and China, using environmental data to guide transboundary protection efforts.

## Contribution

The study provides a detailed habitat suitability assessment and conservation strategy for Marco Polo sheep using MaxEnt modeling across a transboundary region.

## Key findings

- Elevation, slope, and September precipitation were the most influential factors in predicting suitable habitats for Marco Polo sheep.
- Northern and western areas of the Wakhan Corridor showed high habitat suitability, while southern and eastern regions had poor or moderate conditions.
- The study highlights the need for joint China–Pakistan conservation efforts to address threats like poaching and habitat fragmentation.

## Abstract

Understanding habitat suitability is critical for conserving the endangered Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) across its transboundary range in Khunjerab National Park (Pakistan) and Tashkurgan Natural Reserve (China). Through MaxEnt modeling we identified crucial environmental factors at different elevation points and slope levels and monthly climate patterns to help in identifying effective conservation locations. Elevation together with slope and September precipitation proved to be critical elements in reaching an assessment model performance level of AUC = 0.919. The assessment results showed that areas within the northern and western sections of the Wakhan Corridor exhibited yellow-colored habitat quality zones with high suitability, but the Khunjerab Pass (south) and eastern sections demonstrated poor habitat conditions according to the evaluation. Based on previously documented research results, the combination of poaching threats and habitat degradation and border fences continues to endanger the survival of the species. The authors recommend that China and Pakistan develop a joint protective program to safeguard this endangered species and their habitats along their migratory pathways to sustain this emblematic ungulate.

This study assesses habitat suitability and identifies conservation priority areas for the endangered Marco Polo sheep throughout Khunjerab National Park (Pakistan) and Tashkurgan Natural Reserve (China). We analyzed species occurrence records against environmental variables (elevation, slope, climate, land cover) using MaxEnt modeling. Model performance was validated through AUC-ROC analysis and response curves, generating spatial predictions of suitable habitats to inform conservation strategies. Spatial predictions were generated to map potential distribution zones, aiding conservation planning for this endangered species. The model’s predictive performance was evaluated using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, yielding an AUC of 0.919, indicating strong discriminatory capability. Elevation (43.9%), slope (25.9%), and September precipitation (15.9%) emerged as the most influential environmental predictors, collectively contributing 85.7% to the model. The total percentage contribution and permutation significance values were 98.6% and 77.8%, respectively. Jackknife analysis identified elevation (bio-1), slope (bio-7), hillshade (bio-2), and the maximum July temperature (bio-9) as the most significant factors influencing the distribution of Marco Polo sheep, Conversely, variables such as viewshade (bio-14), land cover (bio-3), and precipitation in August (bio-4) contributed a minimal gain, suggesting that they had little impact on accurately predicting species distribution. The habitat suitability map reveals varying conditions across the study area, with the highest suitability (yellow zones) found in the northern and western regions, particularly along the Wakhan Corridor ridgelines. The southern regions, including Khunjerab Pass, show predominantly low suitability, marked by purple zones, suggesting poor habitat conditions. The eastern region displays moderate to low suitability, with fragmented patches of green and yellow, indicating seasonal habitats. The survival of transboundary Marco Polo sheep remains at risk due to poaching activities and habitat destruction and border fence barriers. This study recommends scientific approaches to habitat restoration together with improved China–Pakistan cooperation in order to establish sustainable migratory patterns for this iconic species.