Deep learning analysis of long COVID and vaccine impact in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs): development of a risk calculator in a multicentric study

TL;DR

This study uses deep learning to analyze long-term effects of COVID-19 and vaccine impact in low- and middle-income countries, developing a risk calculator for chronic symptoms.

Contribution

A novel deep learning-based risk calculator for predicting chronic fatigue, depression, and prolonged symptoms in post-COVID patients in LMICs.

Findings

68.1% of patients experienced symptoms lasting longer than 2 weeks, with common symptoms including loss of smell and dry cough.

Vaccinated individuals had lower odds of prolonged symptoms, chronic fatigue syndrome, and depression.

Predictive models achieved high AUC scores (0.87 for chronic fatigue, 0.82 for depression, and 0.74 for prolonged symptoms).

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a global pandemic affecting millions worldwide. This study aims to bridge the knowledge gap between acute and chronic symptoms, vaccination impact, and associated factors in patients across different low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

The study included 2,445 participants aged 18 years and older, testing positive for COVID-19. Data collection involved screening for medical histories, testing records, symptomatology, and persistent symptoms. Validated instruments, including the DePaul Symptom Questionnaire (DSQ-2) and the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), were used. We applied a self-supervised and unsupervised deep neural network to extract features from the questionnaire. Gradient boosted machines (GBM) model was used to build a risk calculator for chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS), depression, and prolonged COVID-19 symptoms.

Out of the study cohort, 68.1% of the patients had symptoms lasting longer than 2 weeks. The most frequent symptoms were loss of smell (46.8%), dry cough (40.1%), loss of taste (37.8%), headaches (37.2%), and sore throat (28.9%). The patients also reported high rates of depression (47.7%), chronic fatigue (6.5%), and infection after vaccination (23.7%). Factors associated with CFS included sex, age, and smoking. Vaccinated individuals demonstrated lower odds of experiencing prolonged COVID-19 symptoms, CFS, and depression. The predictive models achieved a high area under the curve (AUC) scores of 0.87, 0.82, and 0.74, respectively.

The findings underscore the significant burden of long-term symptoms such as chronic fatigue and depression, affecting a considerable proportion of individuals post-infection. Moreover, the study reveals promising insights into the potential benefits of vaccination in mitigating the risk of prolonged COVID-19 symptoms, CFS, and depression. Overall, this research contributes valuable knowledge towards comprehensive management and prevention efforts amidst the ongoing global pandemic.

Clinical trials.gov, NCT05059184.

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