Changes in the Distribution of Botrytis cinerea Pers. Fr. In China Under Climate Change

TL;DR

This study predicts how the distribution of Botrytis cinerea in China will change under future climate conditions using the MaxEnt model.

Contribution

The study identifies key environmental variables and predicts future distribution patterns of Botrytis cinerea in China under climate change.

Findings

The current suitable distribution center of Botrytis cinerea is in Gande County, Qinghai Province.

Future climate conditions may reduce high and low suitable areas but increase medium suitable areas.

Temperature and precipitation variables significantly influence the distribution of Botrytis cinerea.

Abstract

Botrytis cinerea Pers. Fr. is capable of infecting many horticultural plants and agricultural products with gray mold, which causes great losses to the world economy. MaxEnt is a probabilistic model for classification and prediction. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the current and future potential geographic distribution of
B. cinerea
in China, and key environmental variables affecting its distribution were identified. The results showed that under the current climatic conditions, the central area of suitable distribution of
B. cinerea
is in Gande County, Guoluo Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Qinghai Province, China (99.63° E, 33.92° N). The highly suitable areas are mainly concentrated in tropical and subtropical regions, including Tianjin, Shandong, Anhui, Hubei, and Henan in China. Under the future climate conditions, the center of the suitable distribution of
B. cinerea
did not shift significantly. The areas of both the high and low suitable areas of
B. cinerea
decreased, but the areas of the medium suitable areas increased. Key environmental variables affecting the distribution of
B. cinerea
included isothermality (bio3), mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio8), mean temperature of driest quarter (bio9), precipitation seasonality (bio15), precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19), and elevation. This study has the potential to be utilized to understand the changing patterns of
B. cinerea
distribution and to promote ecological conservation and agricultural management.

The current center of mass of Botrytis cinerea is at (99.63° E, 33.92° N). Temperature and precipitation as key environmental variables influencing the distribution of Botrytis cinerea.

Figures