Benefits of public awareness in mitigating cystic echinococcosis risk in Western China: A climate and socio-economic perspective

TL;DR

The study shows that increasing public awareness can reduce the risk of a parasitic disease in western China, even as climate and socio-economic changes may increase future risks.

Contribution

The novel use of a Bayesian model to project future CE risks under different scenarios and assess the impact of public awareness.

Findings

High-risk regions for CE are currently concentrated in Tibet, Qinghai, Gansu, and Xinjiang.

Increased public awareness could reduce the population at risk by 3.35% in western China by 2030.

Future projections suggest Yunnan, Gansu, and Sichuan will experience heightened CE risks.

Abstract

The prevalence of cystic echinococcosis (CE), a widespread zoonotic disease, imposes a significant public health burden, especially in western China. However, under the background of global change, how to meet the challenge of the future risk of CE remains unclear. As global climate change, land use changes, and socio-economic factors continue to progress, the spread and intensity of CE may potentially worsen, making it crucial to assess and mitigate future risks.

By employing Bayesian additive regression trees model to develop risk models for CE in animal hosts (cattle, sheep and dogs) and humans, this study mapped the current distribution of infection risk for CE and projected future risks under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The projections considered both constant and increased rates of public awareness rates regarding CE prevention in the future.

Current simulations indicate that the regions with a high risk of CE infection are primarily concentrated in Tibet, Qinghai, Gansu, and Xinjiang. Future projections suggest that heightened CE risks will be experienced in regions such as Yunnan, Gansu, and Sichuan will experience heightened CE risks. Notably, predictions suggest that increased public awareness is estimated to be linked to accompanied by a reduction of the population at risk by 2.72% to 3.35% in western China by 2030.

This research offers a comprehensive understanding of the future distribution of epidemic risk for CE under climate and socio-economic changes. It highlights that enhancing public awareness regions with high-risk is a critical factor associated with reduced infection rates. Furthermore, the study offers a valuable framework for assessing the risk associated with other zoonotic diseases.

Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is a zoonotic disease prevalent in western China. In this study, we used a risk model to predict how the spread of CE might change in the future, considering factors like climate change, land use changes, and socio-economic development. We focused on understanding how these changes might affect high-risk areas and what role public awareness plays in reducing the spread of disease. Our results suggest that regions such as Yunnan, Gansu, and Sichuan may experience higher risks in future. Importantly, we found an association between improved public awareness of CE prevention and an estimated reduction of the population at risk by 3.35%, corresponding to a decrease of 7.92 million people in western China by 2030. This study provides valuable insights into how global changes may influence the future spread of CE and emphasizes the importance of public health interventions. Our findings offer a useful framework for assessing the risk of other zoonotic diseases that may be influenced by similar factors.

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