# Nearby arrests and violent crime as predictors of student absenteeism

## TL;DR

This study shows that nearby arrests, especially in schools with more Black students, strongly predict student absences in New York City.

## Contribution

The study reveals that arrests, not just violence, significantly affect school absences, particularly in schools with Black and low-income students.

## Key findings

- Nearby arrests are a strong predictor of school absences, especially in schools with more Black students.
- High schools with high proportions of Black or low-income students show negative effects of nearby arrests on absences.
- Violence has a small effect on absences in K-8 schools but no significant effect in high schools.

## Abstract

This study tests the role of violence and policing in predicting student absences at the school level in New York City. It uses a large dataset on daily attendance over six school years (2013–2014–2018–2019) across all New York City public schools, and operationalizes policing by arrests, and violence by reported violent crime. While much literature focuses on the impact of violence on student outcomes, this study finds that arrests are, in fact, a relatively strong predictor of school absences. Perhaps more importantly, nearby arrests have a uniquely strong association in schools with greater numbers of Black students. In high schools, nearby arrests negatively affect school absences, but only in schools with a high proportion of Black or low-income students. Nearby violence has a small association with absences in K-8 schools, but no significant association with absences in high schools. These findings underscore the need to understand policing’s disparate impact on educational outcomes.