# Using Ecological Modeling to Study the Response of Distribution Dynamics of Paraglenea fortunei (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) to Human Activities and Climate Change to in Northeast Asia

## TL;DR

This study uses ecological modeling to predict how climate change and human activities affect the spread of the longhorn beetle Paraglenea fortunei in Northeast Asia.

## Contribution

The study introduces an optimized MaxEnt model to assess the beetle's distribution under climate change and human activity influences in the region.

## Key findings

- Climatic factors like temperature stability and precipitation are key drivers of P. fortunei's distribution.
- The beetle may expand its range to higher latitudes and several countries in Northeast Asia due to climate change.
- Human activities also significantly influence the beetle's potential distribution patterns.

## Abstract

Invasive species pose an increasing threat to biodiversity, agriculture, and ecosystem stability, especially under accelerated climate change. Paraglenea fortunei, a longhorn beetle native to East Asia, has emerged as a potential pest, warranting urgent attention to its possible range expansion. This study aims to predict the current and future potential distribution of
P. fortunei
using an optimized MaxEnt ecological niche model under various climate change scenarios across Northeast Asia. The results indicate that climatic factors, such as temperature stability, precipitation, and human activities are key drivers influencing its distribution. These findings suggest that
P. fortunei
prefers to live in ecosystems with cooler climates, more consistent changes, and abundant precipitation. Meanwhile,
P. fortunei
may expand to many countries and regions in the future, including central and western China, Sakhalin in Russia, the Hokkaido Islands in Japan, Vietnam, Myanmar, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh. In addition,
P. fortunei
may migrate to higher latitudes as climate conditions change. These findings contribute to a better understanding of climate‐driven distribution dynamics and offer scientific guidance for pest risk management and regional ecological planning.

In recent years, global climate change has become a critical issue affecting various aspects of ecosystems, including the distribution patterns of species. Our study focuses on the distribution dynamics of Paraglenea fortunei in Northeast Asia in response to human activities and climate change. The research question we sought to answer was how human activities and climatic factors influence the potential distribution areas and dynamics of
P. fortunei
. This study addresses the gap in the literature regarding the impact of human activities and climate change on insect distribution patterns in the region.