Forecasting life expectancy in São Paulo City, Brazil, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic
Maria L. Miranda, Cassio M. Turra, Ugofilippo Basellini

TL;DR
This study predicts life expectancy in São Paulo, Brazil, until 2050, considering the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality rates.
Contribution
The study introduces a novel forecasting approach that accounts for recent mortality shocks like the pandemic by evaluating different baseline periods.
Findings
By 2050, life expectancy in São Paulo is projected to reach 81.4 years for men and 88.3 years for women.
Male life expectancy could match top-performing countries by 2045, within the 95% prediction interval.
The method highlights the importance of accurate forecasting strategies in the context of recent mortality decline.
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly increased mortality rates, disrupting historical trends and making it challenging to forecast future life expectancy levels. São Paulo, the first city in Brazil to report a COVID-19 case and death, saw a decrease of over four years in life expectancy at birth for males and over three years for females between 2019 and 2021. São Paulo has been at the forefront of the demographic transition in the country and experienced a nonlinear mortality decline over the twentieth century. The city's historical mortality trajectory and the disruptive effects of COVID-19 have introduced challenges to mortality forecasting. In this study, we used a unique dataset dating 1920–2022 to forecast life expectancy in São Paulo until 2050 using the Lee-Carter and Lee-Miller methods. Mortality rates were obtained from a combination of deaths gathered by the SEADE…
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Taxonomy
TopicsInsurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Global Health Care Issues · Climate Change and Health Impacts
