# Carry-over effects in Culex species along a land use gradient with differences in microclimatic conditions

## TL;DR

This study examines how urban microclimates affect the development and survival of Culex mosquitoes, which are important disease vectors.

## Contribution

The study reveals how urbanization and microclimatic conditions influence mosquito fitness traits and vector capacity.

## Key findings

- Mosquitoes in warmer urban areas developed faster but had lower adult survival under heat stress.
- Higher temperatures led to smaller wing sizes and increased wing asymmetry in emerging mosquitoes.
- Juvenile survival was highest at moderate temperatures (20-21°C).

## Abstract

Culex pipiens sensu stricto (s.s.) and Culex torrentium are the major vectors of Sindbis, Usutu and West Nile virus in Europe. Both mosquito species typically breed in small artificial water containers (e.g. flower pots or rain barrels) and are the predominant mosquitoes in urbanised areas. The larval breeding conditions (e.g. temperature) can lead to carry-over effects on the emerging adults, which can influence their fitness traits (e.g. longevity or fecundity) and, finally, the vector capacity of a mosquito population. Our study aimed to investigate how the microclimatic heterogeneity across an urban area affects juvenile development and survival, as well as wing size, wing asymmetry and adult survival under heat stress of emerging adult Cx. pipiens s.s./Cx. torrentium.

Experiments were conducted in Oldenburg (Lower Saxony, Germany) between 2021 and 2022. In a semi-field study, 45 artificial breeding habitats with 30 Cx. pipiens s.s./Cx. torrentium larvae were installed along a land use gradient, from vegetation-dominated to urban areas. The wings of all emerged mosquitoes were removed to measure wing size and wing asymmetry. Additionally, we tested the survival time of field-emerged adults exposed to 31 °C in the laboratory.

A piecewise structural equation model (SEM) was employed to simultaneously estimate the linear regression coefficients for various predicted relationships. The findings from the bivariate results align with the theoretical model derived from the SEM analysis. As sites with higher urbanisation indices had higher mean temperatures, mosquito development also differed along this urbanisation gradient. Results indicate that mosquitoes developing in warmer sites had shorter developmental times, and the highest juvenile survival occurred between 20 and 21 °C. Higher mean temperatures lead to lower adult survival times under heat stress and smaller wing centroid sizes. Finally, we showed that individuals with larger wing centroid sizes had lower asymmetries, which in turn also increased at higher maximum temperatures in the breeding sites, possibly indicating environmental stress.

Our findings highlight the importance of microclimatic variation across urbanised areas on the development and fitness traits of Culex pipiens s.s./Cx. torrentium mosquitoes, emphasising the need to incorporate fine-scale microclimatic data into risk assessment models.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-025-06903-y.