# Identifying late Pleistocene and Holocene refugia for baboons

## TL;DR

The study identifies refugia for baboons in Africa and Arabia during climate changes, using species distribution models.

## Contribution

The paper introduces a comprehensive analysis of baboon refugia using hindcasted species distribution models across multiple climate cycles.

## Key findings

- Eastern African Rift Valley system contains a substantial mosaic of baboon refugia.
- Southern and south-western Africa host a discrete baboon refugium.
- Orbital precession and obliquity influence habitable range maxima and minima for baboon species.

## Abstract

Climate change has the scope to significantly modulate the distribution of floral and faunal taxa, with those regions persistently suitable to a population through the largest environmental perturbations termed “refugia”. Within Africa, focus has been placed on forest refugia during glacial cycles as hotspots of biodiversity, whilst refugia for savannah species have been overlooked. We compiled a comprehensive dataset of baboon occurrences and fitted species distribution model ensembles to predict the present potential habitable range of each species and the genus as a whole. We then hindcasted these models to palaeoclimate reconstructions spanning the Late Pleistocene and Holocene in 1-thousand-year time steps to predict potentially habitable ranges throughout a full interglacial-glacial cycle. Our results indicate a substantial mosaic of refugia in the eastern African Rift Valley system, a discrete refugium in southern and south-western Africa, as well as isolated refugia across western Africa and Arabia. Orbital precession and obliquity both play a role in driving maxima and minima or predicted habitable ranges for alternate baboon species, but these appear expressed within ca. 100 thousand-year eccentricity cycles. This supports the use of full interglacial-glacial cycles, rather than simply comparing peak glacial and interglacial conditions, to determine the presence of refugia.

Hindcasted species distribution modelling of baboons illuminates potential refugia across Africa and Arabia, with predicted maxima and minima of habitable ranges pulsed by orbital precession and obliquity expressed within the last precessional cycle.