# Majority illusion drives the spontaneous emergence of alternative states in common-pool resource games with network-based information

## TL;DR

This paper shows how network visibility in resource use can create misleading perceptions, leading to either sustainable or overused outcomes in shared resources.

## Contribution

The study introduces the 'majority illusion' in CPR games, showing how network visibility can drive bistable outcomes.

## Key findings

- Highly visible nodes in networks can create a false perception of high extraction rates.
- Reducing information asymmetry can stabilize resource outcomes.
- Targeting high-impact hubs in networks can promote sustainable CPR management.

## Abstract

Common-pool resources (CPRs), including fisheries and the atmosphere, are critical for ecological, social, and economic sustainability but are easily overused. We use an agent-based model to investigate how social networks shape resource extraction outcomes. Networks with highly visible nodes can create a “majority illusion” in which most users believe high-intensity extraction is dominant, even if it is not. This misperception can push the entire population toward one of two possible states: an abundant, high-welfare resource or a depleted, low-welfare one. Aligning users’ environmental impact with their visibility can mitigate this effect and steer the system toward a single, predictable outcome. These results suggest that network-based policies, such as reshaping information flows, particularly targeting high-impact hubs, could help stabilize cooperative behaviors and encourage sustainable management of CPRs, reducing the risk of tragedy-of-the-commons scenarios.

•Information asymmetry generates bistable outcomes in common pool resources•A few users drive information asymmetries in perceptions of resource extraction•The stochastic emergence of key users’ behavior determines which outcome results•As information asymmetries are reduced, the bistability of outcomes subsides

Information asymmetry generates bistable outcomes in common pool resources

A few users drive information asymmetries in perceptions of resource extraction

The stochastic emergence of key users’ behavior determines which outcome results

As information asymmetries are reduced, the bistability of outcomes subsides

Environmental science; Natural resources; Computer science.