# Multi-scenario simulation of carbon stock and landscape ecological risk changes in Jinpu new area and analysis of spatial conflict relationships

## TL;DR

This study uses simulations to analyze how carbon storage and ecological risks change in Jinpu New Area under different development scenarios, aiming to guide sustainable urban planning.

## Contribution

The paper introduces a multi-scenario simulation approach to assess spatial conflicts between carbon stock and ecological risk in urban development.

## Key findings

- From 2019 to 2023, higher carbon stock and ecological risk areas generally expanded.
- By 2027, spatial conflicts between high carbon stock and ecological risk are most significant in central, southern, and southeastern regions.
- Natural development and cropland protection scenarios show lower spatial conflicts compared to urban development scenarios in northern and eastern regions.

## Abstract

Sustainability of carbon sink capacity is an essential player in the health of the city, and landscape ecological risk can reveal present status of land management. This paper analyzes the distribution of spatial conflict areas between high carbon stock and landscape ecological risk under the current scenarios and future three different development scenarios in 2025 and 2027. The results showed that: (1) from 2019 to 2023, the higher carbon stock areas and the ecological higher-risk areas generally expand; (2) from 2025 to 2027, under different development scenarios, higher carbon stock and higher-risk areas showed different changes, according to the distribution of spatial conflicts between the two, the significant common zones of conflict were distributed in the central, southern, and southeastern parts of the study area, while in the northern and eastern parts of the study area, the spatial conflict distribution of the natural development and cropland protection scenarios is significantly lower than the urban development scenarios, so future land use development patterns can be optimized by combining the respective characteristics of natural development and cropland protection scenarios. Therefore, this study can provide a basis for the future economic development of study area and the green and healthy development of Jinpu New Area.