Potential Impact of Maternal and Newborn Health Improvements in Afghanistan: Projection of Mortality to 2030

TL;DR

Improving maternal and newborn care in Afghanistan could significantly reduce deaths by 2030 if coverage of key health interventions reaches 90%.

Contribution

The study projects mortality reductions by modeling the impact of increased coverage of maternal and neonatal health interventions.

Findings

Neonatal mortality could drop from 36 to 16 per 1,000 live births by 2030 with 90% coverage of interventions.

Maternal mortality could decrease from 638 to 237 per 100,000 live births under the same conditions.

The study emphasizes the need for quality service modeling to guide resource allocation in constrained settings.

Abstract

Despite remarkable progress, Afghanistan’s health sector continued to be hampered by chronic challenges undermining its performance including pervasive poverty and ongoing instability. At present, many pregnant women remain vulnerable because of low access to antenatal care, postnatal care, and skilled birth attendance.

To illustrate the potential impact that continued improvements in maternal and neonatal health can have in terms of lives saved, and progress towards development goals. More nuanced modeling to consider the current quality of services is needed to inform resource mobilization and allocation decisions in a constrained fiscal space.

If coverage of evidence-based neonatal and maternal interventions reaches 90% of those in need by 2030, the neonatal mortality rate would drop from 36 to 16 per 1,000 live births, and the maternal mortality ratio from 638 to 237 per 100,000 live births. These reductions would mostly be driven by increases in coverage of interventions during childbirth.

Tenacity, innovation, reinvigorated commitment, and continued financial resources are critically needed from the international health community and local government to avoid needless deaths and save lives.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10995-025-04108-4.

This study presents more nuanced results that could be used for advocacy and prioritization of resources to inform decision-making amidst current fiscal and operational constraints. Meanwhile, it serves as a call upon the international health community and local government to maintain financial resources, tenacity, and innovation to avoid needless deaths and build resilience for women and children in Afghanistan. Previous studies modeling the impact of scaling up maternal and newborn health interventions in Afghanistan assumed all services are implemented with high quality. Fragile countries facing similar contextual challenges can use the tool and learnings as a means for advocacy, donor coordination, and prioritizing resources within constrained fiscal space to improve the quality and coverage of maternal and newborn health services and prevent mortality and morbidity.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10995-025-04108-4.

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