# Neural mechanisms of confidence propagation in hierarchical partially observable decision-making

## TL;DR

The study explores how the brain handles confidence in complex decision-making environments with hidden information.

## Contribution

The research identifies specific brain regions and neural pathways involved in encoding and modulating confidence in hierarchical decision-making.

## Key findings

- The ventral insular cortex and presupplementary motor area encode confidence in deck-type inference during decision-making.
- Individual differences in modulating value-belief and decision confidence are linked to brain connectivity patterns.
- Higher-order confidence influences lower-order confidence through multiple neural pathways.

## Abstract

Our daily decision-making often occurs in environments that are partially observable and hierarchically organized, introducing multiple sources of uncertainty in the decision-making process. To investigate how the brain incorporates subjective confidence stemming from the hierarchical partially observable structure, we developed the twenty-one task, a “blind” blackjack card game with hidden card-deck types. Combining computational modeling and neuroimaging demonstrates that the ventral insular cortex (vIC), presupplementary motor area (SMA), and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) encode confidence in deck-type inference during decision-making. Furthermore, individuals vary in how they modulate value-belief and decision confidence based on their deck confidence; these modulations are predicted by the effect of deck confidence on functional connectivity between the vIC and pregenual cingulate cortex, and between the preSMA/dACC and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, respectively. Our findings suggest that in hierarchical partially observable environments, confidence for higher-order belief affects lower-order confidence through multiple pathways.

•Higher-order confidence guides behaviors under hierarchical partial-observability•Higher-order confidence shapes both value-belief and decision confidence•vIC and preSMA/dACC encode higher-order confidence during decision-making•Prefrontal-insular connectivity reflects higher-order confidence modulation

Higher-order confidence guides behaviors under hierarchical partial-observability

Higher-order confidence shapes both value-belief and decision confidence

vIC and preSMA/dACC encode higher-order confidence during decision-making

Prefrontal-insular connectivity reflects higher-order confidence modulation

Neuroscience; Cognitive neuroscience