The Seasonality and Spatial Landscape of the Historical Climate-Based Suitability of Aedes-Borne Viruses in Four Atlantic Archipelagos

TL;DR

This study examines how climate has historically influenced the spread of Aedes-borne viruses in four Atlantic archipelagos, revealing patterns that could help improve local public health strategies.

Contribution

The study provides a novel historical analysis of climate-based suitability for Aedes-borne virus transmission in Atlantic archipelagos.

Findings

Island-level suitability and climate change impact decrease with distance from the equator.

Significant seasonality patterns are observed only in subtropical climates.

Findings can inform public health initiatives like prevention and mosquito control.

Abstract

While archipelagos have a demonstrated role in the stepping-stone process of the global dissemination of Aedes-borne viruses, they are often neglected in epidemiological and modelling studies. Over the past 20 years, some Atlantic archipelagos have witnessed a series of Aedes-borne viral outbreaks, prompting inquiries into the local historical suitability for transmission. In this study, the climate-based suitability for transmission of Aedes-borne viruses between 1980 and 2019 across Madeira, the Canaries, Cape Verde, and São Tomé e Príncipe archipelagos was estimated. For each island, we characterized the seasonality of climate-based suitability, mapped the spatial landscape of suitability, and quantified the historical effects of climate change. Results show that both island-level suitability and the historical impact of climate change decrease with distance from the equator, while significant seasonality patterns are observed only in subtropical climates. This study provides a unique historical perspective on the role of climate in shaping Aedes-borne virus transmission potential in Atlantic archipelagos. The findings herein described can inform local public health initiatives, including human-based prevention, targeted viral surveillance, and mosquito control programs.

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