Potentially Suitable Habitat for the Pest Histia rhodope Based on Its Host Plant Bischofia polycarpa and Climatic Factors in China

TL;DR

This study predicts how climate change will expand the habitat of a pest moth and its host plant in China, helping to manage future outbreaks.

Contribution

The study identifies shared climatic factors and predicts future habitat expansion of a pest and its host under climate change scenarios.

Findings

The potentially suitable habitat for H. rhodope is predicted to increase significantly by the 2070s.

Precipitation of the Warmest Quarter is the most influential factor for the distribution of both H. rhodope and B. polycarpa.

Both the pest and its host plant are expected to shift to higher elevations under future climate scenarios.

Abstract

In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to investigate the potentially suitable ranges for the defoliating pest Histia rhodope and its main host Bischofia polycarpa. The results showed that 8 of the 10 most important climatic factors influencing the distribution of potential habitats are common for both the moth and its host tree. Under different climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s, the potentially suitable areas are predicted to increase and spread to high-latitude regions, particularly for H. rhodope. These results provide information that can help monitor the potentially suitable areas of H. rhodope and improve our understanding of the climate-driven distribution of this species.

Histia rhodope is a defoliating pest that feeds mainly on the ornamental garden plant Bischofia polycarpa. Recently, frequent outbreaks of H. rhodope in Southern China have severely affected cityscapes and people’s lives. To provide a predictive early-warning program for the spread risk of H. rhodope in China and reduce damage to B. polycarpa, we used the MaxEnt model to investigate the potentially suitable spread characteristics of H. rhodope and its host B. polycarpa under different climate scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070. The results showed that the potentially suitable habitat of H. rhodope under the SSP5-8.5 scenario will reach an area of 3174.55 × 103 km2 in the 2070s, an increase of 1010 × 103 km2 from the current distribution. The potentially suitable habitat of B. polycarpa under the SSP5-8.5 scenario will reach 2618.01 × 103 km2 in the 2070s (an increase of 464 × 103 km2). The potentially suitable habitats of H. rhodope and B. polycarpa are expected to shift to higher elevations under future climate scenarios. We also identified ten key environmental factors, of which Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (bio18) had the greatest influence on the probability of moth and host plant occurrence. Our results highlight the risk of further expansion of the potentially suitable area for H. rhodope and the important role of the host plant in this process, and provide a firm scientific basis for the monitoring and management of H. rhodope and B. polycarpa.

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