# Lobster Yield Dynamics in a Warming Ocean: A Generalized Linear Modeling Case Study in Prince Edward Island, Canada

## TL;DR

This study explores how rising ocean temperatures affect lobster yields in Prince Edward Island, using historical data and climate trends.

## Contribution

The study introduces a GLM-based approach with lagged SST to analyze the impact of warming oceans on lobster landings.

## Key findings

- Historical increases in sea surface temperature correlate with changes in lobster landings.
- Lobster life cycle stages like spawning and larval development are sensitive to temperature changes.
- The study provides insights for managing fisheries under future climate change scenarios.

## Abstract

The lobster fishery is the third largest industry in Prince Edward Island (PEI), Atlantic Canada. Rising water temperatures due to global warming are impacting the successful completion of the lobster life cycle, which is heavily dependent on water temperature. This study investigated the relationship between lobster landings and sea surface temperature (SST) in PEI. Using Generalized Linear Models (GLM), we identified a significant correlation between annual historical lobster landings and monthly sea surface temperatures (SST) in the waters around PEI from 1990 to 2021. Considering the 5–8 year maturation period of lobsters, we applied a lagged SST structure over an 8-year period and used a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) to evaluate the relationship between historical SST and lobster landings. Our findings suggest that historical increases in SST are correlated with changes in lobster landings. Given the known sensitivities of lobster life cycles (i.e., spawning, larval development) and behavior (i.e., mating) to high ambient water temperature, our study also offers important insights for future fishery management under anticipated climate change scenarios.