Prediction Models for Postoperative Delirium of Cardiovascular Surgery (PODOCVS): Protocol for a Systematic Review

TL;DR

This study will review existing models to predict postoperative delirium after heart surgery to improve patient care and outcomes.

Contribution

The study introduces a systematic review protocol to evaluate and compare prediction models for postoperative delirium in cardiovascular surgery patients.

Findings

The review will assess the performance and applicability of existing prediction models for postoperative delirium.

It will compare traditional statistical models with machine learning approaches for accuracy.

The dataset and findings will be made publicly available for further research.

Abstract

Postoperative delirium of cardiovascular surgery (PODOCVS) is an acute brain dysfunction characterized by inattention, impaired consciousness, and cognitive disorders, and the severity and presence of these symptoms fluctuate over time. PODOCVS occurs during the early postoperative period and is associated with adverse outcomes, including prolonged mechanical ventilation, premature mortality, and so on. Advances in its early diagnosis and treatment have mitigated some of the initial adverse effects of PODOCVS, but models for predicting risk in patients who have already developed PODOCVS remain inadequate for effective secondary prevention. Developing multivariable prediction models for stratifying PODOCVS risk would enable early, personalized interventions.

This study aims to systematically review and critically evaluate the development, performance, and applicability of existing prediction models for PODOCVS.

An extensive systematic search will be performed across multiple databases, including Embase, PubMed, the Web of Science, and so on, to identify studies related to multivariate predictive models for PODOCVS. A manual search of the included studies’ reference lists will also be conducted to identify any additional relevant publications. This systematic review will include studies that meet the following criteria: (1) studies with subject populations comprising adult cardiovascular surgery patients aged ≥18 years, (2) studies involving the development and internal or external validation of predictive models for PODOCVS via multivariate analysis, and (3) studies with outcome measures focused on postoperative delirium. Two researchers (ZXL and WYK) will independently extract the data and assess the included studies’ model quality using the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS) checklist and the Predictive Model Bias Risk Assessment Tool (PROBAST). Since this study will not involve patient data, ethics approval is not required. Our findings will be published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal and the dataset will be made freely available.

Literature searches were conducted from the inception of the database to May 20, 2024 (updated up to January 31, 2025), and data extraction and analysis are expected to be complete by the end of May 2025. We currently have a preliminary plan to publish the complete study results by August 2025, subject to any unforeseen delays or changes in the research timeline.

We present a protocol for the systematic review of prediction models for postoperative delirium in cardiac surgery patients. Aiming to identify, summarize, and critically appraise existing risk models globally, this review seeks to provide an up-to-date reference for stakeholders involved in patients with cardiac surgery care, policy making, and research. In addition, we aim to investigate whether machine learning models for PODOCVS offer more accurate predictions than traditional statistical models.

PROSPERO CRD42024578957; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/view/CRD42024578957

DERR1-10.2196/75368