# Present and Future of the White‐Tailed Laurel Pigeon (Columba junoniae) on Gran Canaria Island

## TL;DR

This paper evaluates the success of reintroducing the white-tailed laurel pigeon on Gran Canaria and predicts its future under climate change.

## Contribution

The study provides a framework for assessing reintroduction success and planning for climate change impacts in conservation.

## Key findings

- The white-tailed laurel pigeon has colonized most of its potential habitat in the reintroduction area.
- Climate change is expected to fragment and reduce the species' suitable habitat in the future.
- Restoration of native forests is crucial for the species' long-term survival and ecosystem resilience.

## Abstract

Due to their evolutionary history and restricted distribution islands species are particularly vulnerable to human impacts and extinction. Consequently, many islands' species have been extirpated, causing complete or local extinctions. Reintroductions are useful, although challenging, tools to restore ecosystems and halt biodiversity loss. In this work, we evaluate the reintroduction success of the endemic white‐tailed laurel pigeon (
Columba junoniae
) on the island of Gran Canaria. We also explore its future potential distribution under different scenarios of climate change in the Canary Islands (Spain). We used a combination of Maximum Entropy models (MaxEnt), trained with spatial records within the whole range of the species, to model the potential distribution of
C. junoniae
on the island of Gran Canaria, where it was recently reintroduced. We compared this potential distribution with the actual distribution of the species in the reintroduction area. Furthermore, we used multiple scenarios of climate change to analyze the likely changes in the species' suitable habitat. We found that
C. junoniae
has colonized most of its potential habitat in the new reintroduction area. Overall, this marks that the reintroduction has successfully facilitated the spread and settlement of the species. However, our analysis also showed that this habitat is expected to suffer future fragmentations and contractions under different climate change scenarios. Based on our research,
C. junoniae
has colonised most of its potential habitat within its new distribution area. Although this is a huge milestone for the conservation of the species, future changes might jeopardise the species' future. In this scenario of accelerated environmental change, microhabitats and niche refuges can alleviate this situation. Our results also suggest that restoration of native forests is fundamental to ensure the species' long‐term persistence and ecosystems' resilience against climate and land‐use changes. This work sets the principles for the evaluation of the reintroduction of
C. junoniae
in Gran Canaria, as well as the long‐term conservation strategy for the species in its new distribution area.

Reintroduction projects are fundamental for the restoration of ecosystems and biodiversity conservation. In this work, we evaluate the success of the reintroduction of the white‐tailed laurel pigeon on Gran Canaria island. We found that the species has colonized most of its potential habitat in the new distribution area but that such niche is likely to be reduced in the mid‐to long‐ term future due to climate change. We propose climate change mitigation strategies to be planned and implemented in the early stages of any reintroduction project.