# General collections demography model with multiple risks

## TL;DR

The paper introduces a model to simulate how collections of objects degrade over time, combining continuous and probabilistic processes.

## Contribution

A novel hybrid Agent-Based Model with Monte Carlo sampling is introduced for simulating degradation in object collections.

## Key findings

- The model combines continuous and probabilistic degradation to simulate deterioration processes.
- A toy application with paper shows the model's ability to predict collection decay.
- Six hypotheses underpin the model for further testing and discussion.

## Abstract

This paper presents an Agent-Based Model (ABM) with Monte Carlo sampling, designed to simulate the deterioration processes within a population of objects over time. The model incorporates damage functions with the risk parameters of the ABC framework to simulate adverse events. As a result, it combines continuous and probabilistic degradation. This hybrid approach makes it possible to study the emergent behavior of the system and explore the range of possible lifetimes of collections with cultural value or scientific interest within galleries, museums, archives or libraries. A toy application of the model is tested with paper, with the main outcome of the model being the decay in condition of a collection as a consequence of all the combined degradation processes. The model is based on six hypotheses that are described for further testing. This paper presents a first attempt at a universal implementation of Collections Demography principles, with the hope that it will generate discussion and the identification of research gaps.