Impact of meteorological factors on transmission of respiratory viruses across all age groups in the hot arid climate in Qatar

TL;DR

This study examines how weather and demographics affect the spread of respiratory viruses in Qatar's hot, arid climate, finding that school age children are a key factor.

Contribution

The study provides new insights into the role of meteorological and demographic factors in respiratory virus transmission in a hot arid climate.

Findings

School age children were the primary determinant of viral transmission, especially with large waves coinciding with school reopenings.

Flu-A, Flu-B, hMPV, and RSV showed clear seasonality linked to meteorological factors like temperature and humidity.

Viruses like HRV, hBoV, and ADV had atypical or no seasonality, suggesting other transmission drivers.

Abstract

The association between meteorological parameters and viral transmission in temperate and subtropical arid climates is not fully understood. The climate in Qatar reaches extremes of heat and humidity but retains a similar pattern of transmission of respiratory viruses as in temperate climates.

The need for a better understanding of the demographic and meteorological factors that drive the transmission of respiratory viruses in the community.

To evaluate the relationship between meteorological and demographic factors on the transmission of 18 respiratory viruses in the State of Qatar.

In total, 355,948 nasopharyngeal swabs were tested for respiratory viruses from 31-Dec-2018 to 29-Dec-2019. The study involved 18 viruses, of which only 8 viruses were included in the analysis: ADV, hBoV, Flu-A, Flu-B, hPIV3, hMPV, HRV, and RSV. Respiratory virus prevalence was compared with local meteorological data including outdoor air temperature; dew point; wind speed; atmospheric pressure; relative humidity; solar radiation, and demographic factors, including age, gender, and nationality.

Transmission waves were seen for ADV, hBoV, Flu-A, Flu-B, hMPV, HRV and RSV but not with hPIV-3. Wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity, and solar radiation were significantly associated with Flu-A, Flu-B, hMPV, and RSV, which showed clear seasonality, but not with HRV, hBoV, and ADV, which had atypical seasonality and hPIV-3, which had no seasonality. Incidental associations could not be excluded and would need to be confirmed through multiple seasons. School age was the most significant demographic.

Young children, rather than meteorological factors, served as the primary determinant of viral transmission. The proximity of 3 large viral waves to school reopening after the summer break suggested school transmission is an important contributor. The significant association of meteorological factors with viral transmission increased the risk further, reflecting the period of the year of maximum transmission. This was seen with as viruses with a clear seasonality but not with viruses with atypical or absent seasonality.

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