# Geospatial impact evaluation of a low-cost agricultural intervention for enhancing environmental resilience

## TL;DR

The study evaluates the environmental and economic impact of promoting sugarcane farming in Nepal using geospatial methods and finds that while adoption increased, environmental benefits were not realized.

## Contribution

Introduces a geospatial impact evaluation framework for low-cost agricultural interventions using remote sensing and econometric techniques.

## Key findings

- Sugarcane adoption increased in treated and spillover communities.
- Expected environmental benefits like erosion control did not materialize.
- Geospatial impact evaluation proved effective for assessing agricultural interventions.

## Abstract

•Geospatial impact evaluation optimizes development program evaluation and outcomes.•Random forest algorithm & crop phenology aided annual sugarcane distribution mapping.•Satellite image interpretation quantifies river boundaries and erosion areas.•OFM and DID identify program effects when lacking a pre-selected comparison group.•Low-cost sugarcane adoption with economic incentives can drive self-sustaining growth.

Geospatial impact evaluation optimizes development program evaluation and outcomes.

Random forest algorithm & crop phenology aided annual sugarcane distribution mapping.

Satellite image interpretation quantifies river boundaries and erosion areas.

OFM and DID identify program effects when lacking a pre-selected comparison group.

Low-cost sugarcane adoption with economic incentives can drive self-sustaining growth.

Land degradation poses a significant threat to ecosystems and livelihoods, particularly in disaster-prone regions. In these settings, the promotion of certain agricultural practices with economic incentives, such as sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) farming, offers a potential solution for enhancing economic stability and mitigating environmental degradation. Despite its promise, the effectiveness of sugarcane as an agricultural intervention remains understudied, especially regarding its environmental benefits. Our study evaluates the impact of sugarcane cultivation in western Nepal, a region highly vulnerable to soil erosion and riverbank degradation due to the presence of flood-prone landscapes. We conducted a geospatial impact evaluation (GIE), which integrated remote sensing data and econometric techniques, including optimal full matching (OFM) and difference-in-differences (DID). We assessed the causal impact of a program promoting sugarcane farming on its adoption and environmental outcomes, measured using multi-temporal satellite imagery, crop phenology, and clustering algorithms, along with machine learning and visual interpretation methods. Our results show that sugarcane adoption increased significantly in both treated and spillover communities, highlighting its potential as a sustainable agricultural practice. However, while uptake was evident, the expected environmental outcomes, such as soil erosion control and riverbank stabilization, did not materialize. This study demonstrates the potential of GIE in evaluating low-cost interventions for sustainable development and provides insights into the role of sugarcane cultivation in promoting climate resilience. The findings underscore the need for complementary interventions and extended timeframes to realize long-term environmental benefits, contributing valuable evidence for policymakers and development practitioners.