# Space-time analysis of head and neck cancer in Asia and its 34 countries and territories (1990–2021): Implications from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

## TL;DR

This study analyzes the burden of head and neck cancer in Asia from 1990 to 2021, revealing regional disparities and projecting future trends to 2030.

## Contribution

The study provides a detailed spatiotemporal analysis of head and neck cancer subtypes in Asia using GBD data and projects future trends using Bayesian modeling.

## Key findings

- South Asia had the highest burden of head and neck cancer in 2021, with the highest disability-adjusted life years and age-standardized rates.
- Lip and oral cavity cancer was the most common subtype in most regions, except East Asia, where nasopharyngeal cancer was most prevalent.
- By 2030, South Asia is projected to maintain high age-standardized rates for multiple head and neck cancer subtypes.

## Abstract

Asia bears a disproportionate burden of head and neck cancer (HNC). This study aimed to analyze its spatial distribution and temporal trends in Asia from 1990 to 2021, projecting trends to 2030.

We performed a secondary analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, examining disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for HNC and its five major subtypes: nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC), thyroid cancer (TC), laryngeal cancer (LC), lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC), and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC), across five Asian subregions and 34 countries/territories from 1990 to 2021. Temporal trends were evaluated using Joinpoint regression, and projections to 2030 were generated through Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model.

From 1990 to 2021, DALYs for HNC increased in five subregions. In contrast, age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR) declined across all subregions except South Asia, with East Asia experiencing the most rapid decrease. In 2021, South Asia recorded the highest DALYs (6,412,639) and ASDR (405.82 per 100,000) for HNC. LOC was the main HNC type in most regions (32.41% − 46.23%), except East Asia, where NPC was most common (38.96%). South Asia also exhibited the highest ASDRs for LC (67.29), LOC (182.29), and OPC (93.00) per 100,000, while Southeast Asia demonstrated the highest ASDRs for NPC (50.77) and TC (18.22) per 100,000. Significant disparities in ASDR trends for HNC subtypes were observed across Asia. By 2030, South Asia is projected to maintain the highest ASDRs for HNC (394.59), LC (62.98), LOC (185.31), and OPC (95.50). East and Southeast Asia are expected to show comparable ASDRs for NPC (approximately 50.00), with Southeast Asia leading in TC ASDR (23.90).

HNC remains a significant public health challenge in Asia, with substantial heterogeneity in its subtypes across the five subregions. Implementing targeted, region-specific strategies is crucial to mitigating the disease burden.