# Temporal trends and public health implications of dengue in Guatemala: A decade of challenges and emerging threats (2013–2024)

## TL;DR

Dengue cases in Guatemala have sharply increased over a decade, with more severe cases and a shift in outbreak locations, especially affecting children.

## Contribution

The study reveals a decade-long surge in dengue cases and a geographic shift in the disease's epicenter in Guatemala.

## Key findings

- Dengue cases rose from 9,357 in 2013 to 117,942 by October 2024, with doubled severity.
- The dengue epicenter moved from Huehuetenango in 2019 to central Guatemala in 2024.
- Children aged 5–9 years experienced higher hospitalization and fatality rates.

## Abstract

•Dengue cases rose from 9357 (2013) to 117,942 by October 2024; the severity doubled.•Dengue epicenter shifted from Huehuetenango (2019) to central Guatemala (2024).•Children aged under 18 years, especially ages 5-9 years, saw more hospitalizations and fatalities.•Year-round transmission and rising severity call for better surveillance and control.

Dengue cases rose from 9357 (2013) to 117,942 by October 2024; the severity doubled.

Dengue epicenter shifted from Huehuetenango (2019) to central Guatemala (2024).

Children aged under 18 years, especially ages 5-9 years, saw more hospitalizations and fatalities.

Year-round transmission and rising severity call for better surveillance and control.

Dengue, a rapidly spreading arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, poses a persistent public health challenge in Guatemala. Rising temperatures increased economic activity, and low population density contribute to the country’s dengue burden, with outbreaks peaking during the rainy season.

This study aimed to identify a temporal trend of the dengue epidemic in Guatemala over a decade (2013–2024).

We collected month- and year-wise dengue case data from 29 provinces between 2013 and October 15, 2024 from the Guatemala’s Ministry of Public Health and Social Assistance database. Additional age-stratified data for individuals under 18 years of age were extracted from the national dengue surveillance databases maintained by the Ministry of Public Health of Guatemala for 2019, 2023 and 2024.

The dengue cases increased significantly from 9357 in 2013 to 117,942 by October 15, 2024, with a notable rise in severe cases and associated mortality. Spatial dynamics also shifted, with the epicenter moving from Huehuetenango in 2019 to central Guatemala in 2024. Children aged 5–9 years were disproportionately affected, with hospitalization rates and case fatalities increasing significantly.

These findings underscore a critical public health crisis, necessitating enhanced surveillance and year-round vector control to mitigate the growing dengue threat in Guatemala.