# Assessing the spatial influence of deforestation on malaria incidence in Pará State, Amazon region, Brazil, 2008-2019

## TL;DR

This study explores how deforestation in Brazil's Pará State affects malaria rates, finding that forest loss and fragmentation are linked to higher malaria incidence.

## Contribution

The novel use of geographically weighted regression reveals spatially varying relationships between deforestation and malaria in Pará State.

## Key findings

- Malaria incidence is associated with forest loss, fragmentation, and pastureland in Pará State.
- Geographically weighted regression models effectively capture spatial heterogeneity in malaria-deforestation interactions.
- High malaria risk areas showed stable incidence rates linked to environmental changes like deforestation.

## Abstract

Malaria transmission is prevalent in tropical regions and is heavily
influenced by environmental factors such as deforestation, which is
particularly significant in the Brazilian Amazon, especially in Pará
State.

This study aimed to assess the relationship between deforestation indicators
and malaria incidence across all 144 municipalities in Pará.

Using municipal-level data from 2008 to 2019, the study applied
geographically weighted regression (GWR) to analyse spatial relationships
between malaria incidence and deforestation metrics. These metrics included
forest cover loss from the previous year, pastureland, forest cover,
fragmentation, urbanisation, and water levels, analysed over three distinct
4-year periods. The study also incorporated poverty levels to examine their
influence on municipalities with high malaria risk.

During the study period, the total deforested area in Pará was 30,000
km2, with 679,846 malaria cases reported. Malaria incidence
rates varied across municipalities, with stable rates in high-risk areas,
and were linked to pastureland, forest loss, fragmentation, and forest
cover. The GWR models effectively captured spatial heterogeneity in these
interactions.

Malaria incidence was associated with areas of Pará State experiencing
significant forest loss and fragmentation, indicating that changes in forest
composition and configuration influence malaria risk.