# Analysis of influencing factors and scales of agglomerate fog on expressways

## TL;DR

This study analyzes factors influencing fog formation on Shandong expressways to improve monitoring and reduce accidents.

## Contribution

The paper introduces a multi-scale analysis using GWR and MGWR models to assess fog influencing factors on expressways.

## Key findings

- Agglomerate fog occurs frequently in early autumn and winter mornings with large temperature differences.
- Three fog-prone zones were identified along Shandong expressways near Jiaozhou Bay, central intermountain basins, and Mount Tai’s northern plain.
- DEM difference and LST difference promote fog, while other factors like precipitation and water system density inhibit it.

## Abstract

To enhance the monitoring accuracy of agglomerate fog on expressways, this paper takes the frequently occurring agglomerate fog data on Shandong’s expressways as an example. Based on the analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of agglomerate fog, from the spatial perspective, it employs Geographic Weighted Regression (GWR) and Multi-scale Geographic Weighted Regression (MGWR) models to analyze the influence and scale of factors including Digital Elevation Model (DEM), DEM difference, water system density, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Land Surface Temperature (LST) difference, and precipitation on agglomerate fog. The main research conclusions are as follows: agglomerate fog frequently occurred in the early morning during autumn and winter when the temperature difference is large. Three concentration centers of agglomerate fog-prone road segments were identified along Shandong’s expressways, located near Jiaozhou Bay, within intermountain basins of the central region, and across the northern plain of Mount Tai (where the Yellow River traverses the concentration center). The impacts of various influencing factors on agglomerate fog are ranked as follows: DEM > DEM difference > LST difference > water system density > NDVI > precipitation, among which DEM difference and LST difference mainly promote fog formation, whereas other factors generally exhibit inhibitory effect. The influence range (adaptive scale) of precipitation is the largest, at 673 meters, followed by the water system with an influence range of 599 meters, and NDVI shows the smallest influence range at only 44 meters. It holds significant importance for reducing the accident rate on expressways.