# Estimation method for impact force source in thick coal seams and its application in rockburst risk quantification

## TL;DR

This paper introduces a new method to estimate impact forces in thick coal seams, helping to assess and warn about coal burst risks more accurately.

## Contribution

A novel estimation method for coal burst force sources and risk quantification in thick coal seams is proposed.

## Key findings

- A coal burst force source estimation model was established using stress estimation and tectonic stress analysis.
- A calculation method for fracture angle and strike span was proposed using microseismic monitoring.
- The method enables rapid analysis of impact force sources and accurate coal burst risk assessment.

## Abstract

Accurately calculating the stress state and its distribution is key to preventing coal burst. Taking a typical mine with extremely thick coal seams and coal bursts as an example, methods such as stress estimation, numerical computation, theoretical analysis, and on-site measurements were used to study the estimation method for coal burst force sources and the quantitative evaluation of coal burst risk under extremely thick coal seams beneath massive gravel rock. The main research content includes: (1) Establishing a coal burst force source estimation model for extremely thick coal seams through the estimation of transmitted stress from massive gravel rock, self-weight stress of the overlying strata, tectonic stress quantitative analysis, and mining disturbance stress estimation; (2) Proposing a calculation method for the fracture angle and strike span parameters required for stress estimation based on microseismic monitoring technology, and comparing and verifying the effectiveness of rapid estimation methods for strike and dip support pressures; (3) Based on the above methods, proposing a quantitative evaluation method for coal burst risk based on stress estimation. The practical results demonstrate that the proposed method enables rapid analysis of impact force sources, accurate assessment of coal burst risk levels, and establishes a foundation for timely and precise early warning of coal burst disasters.