# Timed Up and Go (TUG) Predicts Changes in the Kihon Checklist After Six Months of Continuous Participation in "Kayoinoba" (Community Gathering Places)

## TL;DR

The study shows that the Timed Up and Go test can predict changes in frailty risk for older adults in community programs over six months.

## Contribution

A predictive model using TUG and initial KCL scores to forecast frailty risk in community-based programs.

## Key findings

- The TUG test significantly predicted KCL scores after six months.
- The model had moderate to strong predictive accuracy (adjusted R² = 0.53).
- Initial KCL scores were also a strong predictor of future scores.

## Abstract

Introduction: This study aimed to predict frailty in older adults participating in community-based gatherings in a local city over a six-month period.

Methods: In total, 257 older community members participated in this study. The Kihon Checklist (KCL) was used to assess life function. The KCL consists of 25 items, each scored as 0 or 1 point, resulting in a total score ranging from 0 to 25. Higher scores indicate a greater risk of requiring long-term care. The items cover six domains: physical function, nutritional status, oral function, social engagement, cognitive function, and depressive mood. For motor function assessment, the Timed Up and Go (TUG), one-leg standing, and 30-second chair-stand (CS-30) tests were used.

Results: Multiple regression analysis was used to investigate the effects of age, gender, and motor function on the KCL after six months. The regression formula was set as: KCL after six months (points) = first TUG (seconds) * 0.29 + first KCL (points) * 0.67 - 0.99. The model demonstrated moderate to strong predictive accuracy (adjusted R² = 0.53, root mean squared error (RMSE) = 1.74, mean absolute error (MAE) = 1.34).

Conclusion: Our results showed that TUG could serve as an indicator for older adults participating in community-based gatherings in a local city, implementing our program, and improving the KCL.