# Quantitative Assessment of the Trigger Effect of Proton Flux on Seismicity

## TL;DR

This paper investigates how proton flux might trigger earthquakes by analyzing statistical patterns in proton flux data and comparing them to seismic events.

## Contribution

A novel method is introduced to estimate the trigger effect of proton flux on seismicity using time series analysis and point process modeling.

## Key findings

- The maximum proportion of seismic events triggered by proton flux was estimated at 0.28.
- Local minima of the singularities spectrum support width showed the strongest trigger effect.
- Statistical measures like wavelet-based entropy and spectral slope were used to analyze proton flux data.

## Abstract

An estimate of the trigger effect of the proton flux on seismicity was obtained. The proton flux time series with a time step of 5 min, 2000–2024, was analyzed. In each time interval of 5 days, statistics of the proton flux time series were calculated: mean values, logarithm of kurtosis, spectral slope, singularities spectrum support width, wavelet-based entropy, and the Donoho–Johnston wavelet-based index. For each of the used statistics, time points of local extrema were found, and for each pair of time sequences of proton flux statistics and earthquakes with a magnitude of at least 6.5 in sliding time windows, the “advance measures” of each time sequence relative to the other were estimated using a model of the intensity of interacting point processes. The difference between the “direct” measure of the advance of time points of local extrema of proton flux statistics relative to the time moments of earthquakes and the “inverse” measure of the advance was calculated. The maximum proportion of the intensity of seismic events for which the proton flux was a trigger was estimated as 0.28 for using the points of the local minima of the singularities spectrum support width.