# Chinese burdens and trends of diabetic retinopathy 1990–2021 and 15 years forecast: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

## TL;DR

This study examines the burden of diabetic retinopathy in China from 1990 to 2021 and forecasts future trends, highlighting the impact of aging and the need for prevention.

## Contribution

The study provides a 15-year forecast of diabetic retinopathy trends in China using GBD data and advanced statistical models.

## Key findings

- In 2021, diabetic retinopathy caused 86,317 YLDs and affected 1.37 million people in China.
- Age-standardized rates of YLDs and prevalence increased from 1990 to 2021, with older adults and women most affected.
- Future projections suggest a decline in age-standardized rates of diabetic retinopathy between 2022 and 2036.

## Abstract

To assess the Chinese burden of diabetic retinopathy (DR) between 1990 and 2021, considering variations by year, age, and gender, as well as to forecast the trends over the next 15 years.

We evaluated the burden of DR in China based on data from the GBD 2021, examining prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), age-standardized YLDs rates (ASYR), and age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) over the period 1990 to 2021. Furthermore, we utilized joinpoint analysis and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to explore the epidemiological patterns of the disease and forecast its impact for the years 2022 to 2036.

In 2021, the number of YLDs and prevalence attributed to DR were 86,317 (95% UI: 56,595 to 125,565) and 1.37 million (95% UI: 1.04 to 1.78), respectively. Over the period 1990 to 2021, the AAPC of ASYR and ASPR for DR rose by 0.71 (95% CI: 0.28, 1.14) and 0.43 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.66) in China. Older adults and women experienced a greater burden. Aging and demographic changes are key risk factors for DR, and future trends suggest a decrease in ASYR and ASPR.

The Chinese burden of DR has increased during the years 1990 to 2021. Despite the anticipated decline in the burden of DR between 2022 and 2036, the importance of bolstering efforts in DR prevention and control should not be underestimated.