# Validating the Predictions of a Dynamic Transmission Model Using Real-World Data from a Universal Varicella Vaccination Program in Germany

## TL;DR

This study checks how well a model predicts the effects of a varicella vaccination program in Germany using real-world data.

## Contribution

The paper validates a dynamic transmission model using real-world data from Germany's universal varicella vaccination program.

## Key findings

- The model's predicted varicella cases matched observed trends, especially in children aged 0–5.
- Sensitivity analyses identified key parameters affecting long-term model predictions.
- The model is reliable for assessing vaccination impacts in the first decades after program introduction.

## Abstract

Dynamic transmission models (DTMs) have been used to estimate various aspects of the public health impact of varicella vaccination programs. The aim of this study was to validate the predictions of a DTM—developed using the typical approach to varicella modeling—using real-world data from a country with a long-term universal varicella vaccination (UVV) program and to assess the sensitivity of the predictions to changes in model input parameters. A compartmental, age-stratified DTM was developed using the settings corresponding to the existing UVV program in Germany. The model-predicted total number of varicella cases followed the same trend as observed in the reported data. The agreement between the simulations’ results and the data was the highest for the age group most exposed to varicella (0–5 years old), while for other age groups, a decline in accuracy was observed. Sensitivity analyses identified the input parameters having a crucial impact on the model’s long-term predictions. The results supported the reliability of the DTM for assessing the impact of varicella vaccination programs over the first decades after their introduction and provided an insight into how certain parameters and assumptions influence the model output and thus require careful evaluation in the studies of future varicella vaccination programs.