# Predicting the demand for preschool teachers in China under the three-child policy: a comparative analysis between Guangdong Province and Jilin Province

## TL;DR

This study predicts preschool teacher demand in China's Guangdong and Jilin provinces under the three-child policy, highlighting regional differences and influencing factors.

## Contribution

The paper introduces a comparative LSTM-based analysis of preschool teacher demand under the three-child policy across two Chinese provinces.

## Key findings

- Guangdong's preschool child and teacher demand is projected to rise from 2023-2035.
- Jilin's preschool child and teacher demand is expected to decline during the same period.
- Economic development, population structure, and culture drive the divergent trends between the provinces.

## Abstract

This study predicts the development trends of the scale of preschool children in kindergartens and the demand for full-time teachers in Guangdong Province and Jilin Province under the context of three-child policy, while exploring inter-provincial differences and their underlying reasons.

Based on the statistical data released by the national and provincial regions, we constructed and trained two Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network models for prediction.

From 2023-2035, the scale of preschool children in kindergartens and the demand for full-time teachers in Guangdong Province exhibit an overall upward trend, while in Jilin Province, both exhibit an overall downward trend. The opposite development directions of the two provinces are the result of the combined effects of factors such as the level of economic development, population structure, and culture.

Our findings provide data support for local governments to formulate education policies that are coordinated with the changes in the school-age population and the demand for teachers. It also has reference significance for foreign countries.