# Feasibility and potential value of a local governmental frail check-up program for the risk assessment of long-term care in apparently healthy older citizens: a prospective study

## TL;DR

A local government program in Japan checked for frailty in older adults to predict future long-term care needs, finding it feasible and potentially useful.

## Contribution

The study demonstrates the feasibility of a government-led frailty check-up program for predicting long-term care needs in older adults.

## Key findings

- 1528 older citizens were assessed using frailty measures and health-related quality of life tools.
- Measures like Comprehensive score and EQ-5D-5L predicted long-term care or support needs effectively.
- 15 individuals were certified for long-term care needs, and 38 for care or support needs.

## Abstract

Earlier identification of individuals at risk of needing long-term care can increase the opportunities for preventive/therapeutic interventions, leading to a reduced social burden.

We examined the feasibility and potential value of a frailty check-up program implemented by the local government for risk assessment of long-term care needs in 1,528 apparently healthy older (aged 64/65 years) citizens in Kobe, Japan, between August 2017 and March 2018. The program comprised a questionnaire on general frailty (Comprehensive score) and evaluation of other frailty-related measures, cognitive function-related activities of daily living (Cognitive Function Instrument), and health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L). In March 2020, these measures were merged with data on long-term care or support certification, where the latter represented a condition requiring care for a certain period preceding long-term care needs.

Overall, 15 citizens were certified as having long-term care needs and 38 as having long-term care or support needs. Using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, certain measures, including the Comprehensive score and EQ-5D-5L, significantly predicted the incidence of long-term care or support needs.

The frailty checkup program conducted by the local government may be feasible and valuable for risk assessment of long-term care needs in apparently healthy older citizens.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-025-12918-z.