A study on the diffusion model of new energy passenger vehicles with consideration of product value
Zhongya Han, Dongyuan Zhao, Fengxia Sun, Huike Zhu
TL;DR
This study introduces a new model for predicting new energy vehicle sales by incorporating product value, showing it performs better than existing models.
Contribution
The novel contribution is integrating product value into the Bass model to improve sales forecasting accuracy for new energy vehicles.
Findings
The IBMPV model outperforms traditional models in forecasting new energy vehicle sales.
Improved product value leads to exponential growth in market potential.
Enhanced product value increases external influence while reducing internal influence on sales.
Abstract
Accurately forecasting new energy passenger vehicle sales is essential for developing effective marketing strategies and supporting government policies. Consumers purchase decisions for new energy passenger vehicles are primarily driven by product value, which is shaped by various product attributes that evolve through technological advancements. In this study, we develop a product value function for new energy vehicles based on the theory of value engineering. Then, the product value is integrated into the Bass model, and an Improved Bass Model based on Product Value (IBMPV) is proposed. The experiment results demonstrate that the IBMPV outperforms the Bass, Gompertz, Logistic and ARMAX models in terms of goodness of fit and predictive accuracy, making it more suitable for forecasting new energy passenger vehicle sales. The market potential for new energy passenger vehicles exhibits…
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Taxonomy
TopicsInnovation Diffusion and Forecasting · Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies · Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure