# Analysis of growing season drought characteristics and driving factors for vegetation in the Santun River Irrigation Area in Xinjiang

## TL;DR

This study analyzes drought patterns and their drivers in a key irrigation area in Xinjiang, revealing trends and spatial differences to support sustainable agriculture.

## Contribution

The study introduces a novel application of the TVDI and Geoprobe model to analyze drought characteristics and drivers in an arid irrigation region.

## Key findings

- The Santun River Irrigation Area experienced medium drought with a TVDI mean of 0.738 over 19 years.
- Drought increased in spring and autumn but decreased in summer, with stronger drought in the northern part of the region.
- Elevation and temperature had the strongest influence on drought occurrence, with an explanatory power of 0.869.

## Abstract

Global warming is exacerbating the occurrence of droughts, which have a significant impact on society. Drought is one of the main factors limiting the development of the Santun River Irrigation Area in Xinjiang. Clarifying the driving mechanism and spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of drought in this irrigation area is crucial for ensuring the sustainable development of agriculture. In this paper, the temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI) is used as a drought indicator to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of drought in the Santun River Irrigation Area in Xinjiang, as well as to reveal the factors influencing drought using a Geoprobe model. The results show that the mean value of the TVDI in the Xinjiang Santun River Irrigation Area during 19 years was 0. 738, categorizing it as medium drought. During this period, there was an increasing trend of drought in spring and autumn and a decreasing trend of drought in summer. The drought in the irrigation district had strong spatial heterogeneity, and overall, the drought was stronger in the northern part of the region than in the southern part of the region. Over the past 19 years, the light drought areas in the irrigation district shifted to the medium and severe drought classes at a rate of 114.9 km2·10a−1. The combined effect of elevation and temperature had the strongest explanatory power for drought occurrence in the irrigated area, with a q-value of 0.869. The results of this study provide a theoretical basis for drought risk assessment and water resource planning in arid regions, as well as a reference for drought monitoring studies in similar regions.