# From Atmosphere to Health Outcomes: Analyzing Predictors of Respiratory Disease Mortality in Turkiye

## TL;DR

This study identifies environmental and socioeconomic factors that predict respiratory disease mortality in Turkey, emphasizing the need for region-specific public health strategies.

## Contribution

The study uses longitudinal trajectory modeling to reveal distinct mortality profiles for asthma, COPD, and pneumonia in Turkey.

## Key findings

- COPD mortality is strongly associated with environmental factors like humidity and temperature.
- Pneumonia mortality is significantly linked to air pressure, humidity, alcohol use, and particulate matter.
- Region-specific public health strategies are needed to address respiratory disease mortality.

## Abstract

Asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and pneumonia are significant contributors to morbidity and mortality worldwide. Identifying the predictors of mortality due to these diseases is crucial for effective public health interventions.

We conducted a longitudinal trajectory modeling using SAS TRAJ procedures on data from 81 provinces in Turkiye, categorizing death rates into two profiles for asthma and COPD and three for pneumonia. Environmental and socioeconomic factors were examined as potential predictors through logistic regression modeling.

For asthma, none of the predictors met the false discovery rate (FDR) threshold for significance, suggesting the need for further research. In contrast, COPD predictors showed robust associations with mortality rates, particularly concerning environmental factors such as humidity and temperature. Pneumonia mortality was significantly associated with factors, including air pressure, humidity, temperature, alcohol use, and particulate matter.

The study reveals distinct mortality profiles for respiratory diseases and highlights the importance of environmental and lifestyle factors as predictors. These findings emphasize the need for targeted public health strategies and interventions to manage these diseases effectively.

Asthma, COPD, and pneumonia are significant contributors to morbidity and mortality worldwide. We have shown that provinces with increased air pressure and humidity report increased respiratory deaths, whereas provinces with higher temperature or higher variation of environmental factors report reduced respiratory deaths. Therefore, regionally targeted public health strategies must be developed.