Environmental Suitability of Kazakhstan to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Using Data on Eurasian Outbreaks, 2020–2024

TL;DR

This study identifies areas in Kazakhstan with high risk of avian flu outbreaks and potential underreporting, using environmental and demographic data.

Contribution

The study introduces two ecological niche models to assess HPAI occurrence and reporting in Kazakhstan.

Findings

High occurrence-to-reporting ratios were found in south-western Kazakhstan near the Caspian Sea.

The models showed strong performance with test AUC scores of 0.894 and 0.869 for occurrence and reporting models, respectively.

Enhanced surveillance is needed in several regions including Pavlodar, Northern Kazakhstan, and Qyzylorda.

Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a highly contagious disease of domestic, synanthropic, and wild birds that has demonstrated a sharp rise globally since 2020. This study intends to examine environmental and demographic factors most significantly associated with HPAI (H5N1 and H5N8) outbreaks in Kazakhstan, 2020–2024, and to identify areas of potential underreporting of the disease. Two ecological niche models were developed, namely an “occurrence model” (considering climatic and environmental factors influencing the likelihood of HPAI occurrence) and a “reporting model” (that assesses the probability of disease reporting based on human and poultry population demography). Both models were trained using outbreak locations in countries neighboring Kazakhstan (Afghanistan, China, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan and Russia), and then tested using the HPAI outbreak locations in Kazakhstan. Results suggested a good fit for both models to Kazakhstani outbreaks (test AUC = 0.894 vs. training AUC = 0.915 for “occurrence model”, and test AUC = 0.869 vs. training AUC = 0.872 for “reporting model”). A cluster of high occurrence-to-reporting ratio was detected in the south-western region of Kazakhstan, close to the Caspian Sea, suggesting a need for enhancing surveillance efforts in this zone as well as in some other areas of Pavlodar, Northern Kazakhstan, Western Kazakhstan, Qyzylorda, and Eastern Kazakhstan. Results presented here will help inform the design and implementation of control strategies for HPAI in Kazakhstan with the ultimate goal of promoting disease prevention and control in the country.

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