Methodology of Epidemic Risk Analysis in the Naval Military

TL;DR

This paper reviews how diseases spread on military ships and proposes a method to prioritize disease risks based on contagiousness and severity.

Contribution

The novel contribution is a risk prioritization index for diseases on naval vessels based on R0 and clinical severity.

Findings

A risk prioritization index was defined using contagiousness and clinical severity of diseases.

Examples like COVID-19 and Influenza A H1N1 were classified using the index.

Further work is needed to model onboard activities and pathogen spread.

Abstract

This review of the literature examines diseases and pathogen characteristics on military vessels, in order to improve the success of missions on a boat. Our aim is to understand the spread of disease, aiming to maximize biological resilience and hopefully eliminate outbreaks. Keyword research was conducted from various sources of information, including scientific publications, theses, public health organization websites, and clinical trials. A synthesis of bacterial, viral, fungal, and parasitosis characteristics was established, and a risk prioritization index was defined, based on contagiousness (basic reproduction number (R0)) and clinical severity. For instance, COVID-19 was assessed as moderately contagious, with critical severity, and Influenza A H1N1 as having a minor level of contagiousness with critical severity, resulting in a level two out of three risk prioritization index. This approach demonstrates that while diseases have numerous characteristics, a method for classifying them by isolating specific criteria and prioritizing them could be proposed. In conclusion, further work is needed to analyze onboard operator activities and develop simulation models related to pathogen characteristics.

Figures