# Environmental Effects on the Ecological Carrying Capacity of Marine Ranching in the Northern South China Sea

## TL;DR

This study identifies key environmental factors affecting marine ranching capacity in the northern South China Sea to support sustainable fisheries management.

## Contribution

The study quantifies the influence of environmental factors on marine ecological carrying capacity using GAMs in the northern South China Sea.

## Key findings

- 95.4% of MECC variation was explained by environmental factors.
- Year contributed the most (66.2%) to MECC variation, followed by Chlorophyll-a (20.6%).
- The study supports long-term monitoring and early warning systems for sustainable marine ranching.

## Abstract

This study used Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to assess how environmental factors influence Marine Ecological Carrying Capacity (MECC) in the northern South China Sea, finding that 95.4% of MECC variation was explained by key drivers. The most influential factors were Year (66.2%), Chlorophyll-a (20.6%), Sea Surface Temperature (4.4%), Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen (3.6%), and Water Current (0.6%). The results support long-term monitoring and early warning systems to improve sustainable management of marine ranching fisheries.

The marine ecological carrying capacity (MECC) of marine ranching serves as a crucial indicator for assessing the conservation effect of fishery resources and forms a significant basis for scientific management of coastal fisheries. The environmental impacts on the MECC of marine ranching in the northern South China Sea were analyzed quantitatively by employing Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), which have been successfully applied to the study of the relationship between fishery resources and environmental factors, and factor analysis, using satellite and survey observations. Results showed that 95.40% of the total variation in MECC was explained by these factors. Based on the GAMs, the most important factor was Year (calendar years), with a contribution of 66.20%, followed by Chlorophyll a concentration (Chl-a), Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen (DIN) and Water Current, with contributions of 20.60%, 4.40%, 3.60%, and 0.60%, respectively. The findings of this study inspire us to establish a long-term marine ranching resource and environment monitoring platform, and an early warning and forecasting expert decision-making system, providing scientific references for planning and management of coastal marine ranching.