Spatiotemporal distribution and influencing factors of enteric fever in China: a cluster analysis based on data from 2001 to 2020

TL;DR

This study examines the spread and factors affecting enteric fever in China from 2001 to 2020, identifying key regions and influencing factors like climate and water access.

Contribution

The study identifies two distinct clustering areas for enteric fever in China and reveals region-specific influencing factors.

Findings

Enteric fever incidence declined until 2008 but stabilized afterward, shifting eastward.

Two clustering areas were identified: Guangxi-Guizhou-Yunnan and Zhejiang, each with distinct influencing factors.

Temperature and humidity had delayed effects on incidence in both regions, with varying patterns.

Abstract

Enteric fever primarily affects the southwestern and central regions of China. Although the overall incidence rate has declined, certain areas have seen an increase in cases, necessitating further investigation into their geographic distribution, clustering areas, and potential influencing factors.

City-level data from 2001 to 2020 were analyzed. Spatial clustering was identified, and wavelet transform analysis explored periodic and seasonal characteristics. Determinants were identified using generalized estimating equation and distributed lag non-linear model.

Incidence declined from 2001 to 2008 but leveled off since 2009, shifting eastward. Two clustering areas were identified: Guangxi-Guizhou-Yunnan and Zhejiang. In the Zhejiang, incidence was negatively correlated with GDP per capita and popularization rate of safe drinking water in rural areas. Temperature and relative humidity had delayed effects on incidence in Zhejiang, showing linear or parabolic patterns. In the Guangxi-Guizhou-Yunnan, incidence was positively correlated with the proportion of water bodies. Temperature and relative humidity had delayed effects on incidence in Guangxi-Guizhou-Yunnan, and these effects exhibited fluctuating patterns.

Over the past 20 years, enteric fever incidence in China has shown a rapid early decline but has stabilized more recently. The factors influencing enteric fever prevalence vary between clustering areas, indicating the need for region-specific measures.

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