# Confidence interval forecasting model of small watershed flood based on compound recurrent neural networks and Bayesian

## TL;DR

This paper introduces a new model combining RNNs and Bayesian methods to improve flood prediction accuracy and reliability in small watersheds.

## Contribution

A novel compound RNN-Bayesian model is proposed for balanced reliability and accuracy in flood confidence interval forecasting.

## Key findings

- LSTM-Bayesian achieved 92.31% reliability and 89.15% accuracy for 0–102 hour flood forecasting.
- The model effectively balances reliability and accuracy in small watershed flood prediction.
- Compound RNNs are a promising alternative for hourly streamflow and extreme water level forecasting.

## Abstract

Flood forecasting exhibits rapid fluctuations, water level forecasting shows great uncertainty and inaccuracy in small watersheds, and the reliability and accuracy performance of traditional probability forecasting is often unbalanced. This study combined Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and Bayesian to establish a comprehensive forecasting model framework of RNNs-Bayesian for the forecasting of water level confidence interval, to achieve both reasonable reliability and accuracy. In the Bayesian structure, weight training was used. In the RNNs, base RNN, Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) are used for comparative analysis, and experiments are carried out at the point of the Qixi Reservoir in a small watershed in Zhejiang Province of China. We used the multidimensional disaster data input unit for water level forecasting, including hydrology, meteorology, and geography, and 5 days of time windows for forecasting, The comprehensive reliability of LSTM-Bayesian for 0~102 hours flood reached 92.31%, and the comprehensive accuracy reached 89.15%, and confidence interval forecasting using LSTM is the best method, and achieved reasonable balance of reliability and accuracy. Overall, compound RNN could be a good alternative for forecasting hourly streamflow and extreme water level in small watersheds.